Situazione mercati con prodotti bannati

[Bofocchino]

La russia ha bannato esportazioni grano, il gas costera' di piu'...l'energia anche... ci avviamo verso un commodities supercycle?

Fin'ora abbiamo avuto un tech supercycle (include anche crypto).. adesso fa che moonano solo le commodities e quelli in crypto e stocks se lo prendono nel culo?

[pazzovero]

immagina tenere i termosifoni accesi quando puoi aver un giubbotto da indossare in casa cosi da non patire il freddo.

[Bofocchino]

immagina tenere i termosifoni accesi quando puoi aver un giubbotto da indossare in casa cosi da non patire il freddo.

il giubbotto non ti tiene caldo abbastanza

[pazzovero]

immagina tenere i termosifoni accesi quando puoi aver un giubbotto da indossare in casa cosi da non patire il freddo.

L'acqua calda per la doccia la scaldiamo anche quella col giubbotto?

la doccia fredda fa bene e in ogni caso basta accendere la caldaia prima di docciarsi e poi la spegni

[pazzovero]

immagina tenere i termosifoni accesi quando puoi aver un giubbotto da indossare in casa cosi da non patire il freddo.

il giubbotto non ti tiene caldo abbastanza

ti metti un altro strato di vestiti se hai ancora freddo e dammi 6 numeri per il superenalotto

[Bofocchino]

immagina tenere i termosifoni accesi quando puoi aver un giubbotto da indossare in casa cosi da non patire il freddo.

L'acqua calda per la doccia la scaldiamo anche quella col giubbotto?

Damned una chiave di lettura interessante

https://www.chicagofed.org/publications ... r/2018/404



Many studies document the predictive power of the slope of the Treasury yield curve for forecasting recessions.2 This work is motivated, for example, by the empirical evidence in figure 1, which shows the term-structure slope, measured by the spread between the yields on ten-year and two-year U.S. Treasury securities, and shading that denotes U.S. recessions (dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research). Note that the yield-curve slope becomes negative before each economic recession since the 1970s.3 That is, an “inversion” of the yield curve, in which short-maturity interest rates exceed long-maturity rates, is typically associated with a recession in the near future.


Previous research has exploited this empirical regularity to estimate recession probabilities using statistical models such as probit specifications. An example is the probit analysis in figure 2, which shows the fitted probability that a recession will occur over the next year when the explanatory variable is the ten-to-two-year yield-curve spread. The fitted probability peaks before the beginning of each recession, with the exception of a false positive in the mid-1960s.

[Bofocchino]

One of the big concerns aside from employment which I personally think is just masked numbers anyway, is GDP growth. Adjusted for inflation it's negative. Raise wages to combat inflation and you see more inflation. The only way to make things less horrible for average people is to strengthen the dollar and that isn't going to happen without raising rates which is a conflict of interest for the government because the massive amount of debt will have great 'real' value.
I have no idea what the fuck the US plans to do to get out of this mess which makes me think there isn't actually a plan and that everyone who can cash out is doing just that, and trying to get themselves a seat at the table elsewhere, namely China.
I really don't know the answer to this so I'm genuinely asking, what happens if the US just defaults on it's debt? Does that make the US dollar worthless as currency as the world loses faith in the biggest global producer and financial player? I'm just curious to know what the plan is, if there even is one.

>One of the big concerns [...] is GDP growth. Adjusted for inflation it's negative.
Oh, right. That is something else to ponder.
And I too think that inflation begets more inflation.
Also I think that the stock market, namely the S&P 500 index usually is a much greater indicator of "monetary/price inflation" than the governments ridiculous CPI numbers. But of course it isn't the only indicator, keep that in mind.
Shit gets really worrisome when inflation actually is rampant in the real world, yet the stock markets aren't rising in unison. If that happens, something is about to break or already has.
For instance; if inflation continues to run rampant this year and the S&P 500 doesn't continue to increase at least 10% this year also then it's a telling sign that something's afoot.
>I have no idea what the fuck the US plans to do to get out of this mess
There is no plan, I believe. There is no escape from this (((System))) that only knows how to expand.
We're in uncharted waters.
It's anybody's guess what will happen and how it will unfold.
I have no answer to your debt default question, either.

>"US economy" is mostly consumption and mindless spending
>most of the shit is imported, propping up the economies of far away countries as well
>same is true for most countries, everybody props up everybody else

>USA, high living standards, high debt, high spending reaches full employment
>everybody has a job, everybody has bought their shit, every goodgoy american is debtmaxxed
>consumer products can't be sold at a faster pace anymore
>people can't debtmaxx more
>HOWEVER, the (((System))) requires that exactly this continues to happen, the expansion, the debtmaxxing, the consumption at an EVER INCREASING PACE
people just can't do that any more
not with prices rising this fast, appetite for mindless consumption will maybe last till this years Christmas (2022)

But this is not just the USA, for example it's the same here in Germany.
Germany is about to hit all time record highs of employment in the coming months.
There is no upside to this anymore.
We're at the peak of everything. Everybody is working, everybody is earning, everybody is consuming, everybody is debtmaxxing.
You probably can't reduce product lifecycles further. Who's gonna buy? Pay with what money for inflation?

The whole world is build up to somewhat liveable standards.
Where's the upside once everybody is working?
In which avenues will the (((System))) be able to expand itself FASTER than it does now?

So this is why I believe, once they are communicating "full employment", which will actually be a true statement for once, then it's a glaring sign that we are at the peak.
Not just any peak, but this cycle of the (((System)))'s peak. Might want to call it the post-WW2 peak.

Hence why I believe we are seeing this desperate attempt (>>47037040) at war now. Just so that the (((System))) can expand through the MIC a little longer. But my guess is that it's too little, too late. A few trillions of new debt creation for a senseless arms race won't be enough. Because not soon after EVEN MORE TRILLIONS would need to be conjured into existence just to retain the previous level. And EVEN EVEN MORE to expand further.

I think we might actually be at the end of a great cycle here.
Once we're starting to go downhill, it's anybody's guess what could happen.

History tells us that one method that is used time and time again is great destruction, bloodshed and human suffering through war.
To get the population down, to destroy what is already there.
Just to expand again (or "build back better") once it's agreed that enough damage has accumulated and suddenly we can have "peace again."

There are actually two missed opportunities that have never arisen before. These two are the "missed opportunities of millennia."


@Damned e' un po lungo ma vale la pena leggerlo

[Toppo]

immagina tenere i termosifoni accesi quando puoi aver un giubbotto da indossare in casa cosi da non patire il freddo.

Esatto, si risparmiano soldi così da poter comprare le carte di yugi, ora che non esistono più i kids

[Hoppe]

@_Brutton_ leggiti Mises

[Bofocchino]

@_Brutton_ leggiti Mises

chi e'?